CASTING THE OSCARS
Another round of predictions for Hollywood's annual Festival of Self-Congratulation
By Andy Klein
Film critics have a pro-fessional obligation to watch the Oscar telecast. But what's your excuse?
The numbers go up and down from year to year, but this annual Festival of Self-Congratulation continues to draw huge audiences internationally, even during years when the show itself is excruciatingly bad. (Actually, the real test is whether it does well the year after an excruciatingly bad show.) It is quite conceivable that, somewhere in the Kalahari, two !Kung hunters are coming to blows over Cate Blanchett vs. Virginia Madsen. Somewhere in Bishkek, a Kyrgyz secretary is pondering whom to choose for Best Adapted Screenplay in the office pool. Such is the power of the Hollywood dream factory.
It's a constant wonder that, year after year, the world's slickest entertainment industry can crank out a TV show that's so often bloated and unwatchable. The only reasonable explanation is that too many powerful egos are ready to take offense and that self-destructive compromises rule the day.
Last year's telecast was neither one of the best nor one of the worst. The 1989 show, produced by Allan Carr, remains - and will always remain - the gold standard for the latter. Even the worst minds in Hollywood, working in concert with Juan Manuel Alvarez, would have a hard time coming up with such a total train wreck. (Where is the DVD of that show? My copy of The Star Wars Holiday Special craves company.)
If there's any reason to hold out hope that this year might be an improvement, it's the surprising selection of Chris Rock as emcee. Rock can be brilliantly funny, and he doesn't have Billy Crystal's good-ol'-(showbiz)-boy sheen. He also has edge, which is what the Oscars show most lacks.
On the other hand, the stagings of songs and production numbers, while not as totally tacky as they used to be, remain one of the telecast's weak points. And this year's wretched selection of song nominees isn't going to make things any easier.
But you'll all probably be watching - and groaning along with millions of similarly appalled people around the globe - and you'll still wait around to the bitter end, even if it's absolutely clear by then what film's going to take the Big Award.
How clear can it be? Well, back in the early '80s, if one of the two likeliest winners won for Costume Design (which is announced early in the show) against all logic, that was a solid indicator: When the running shorts in Chariots of Fire beat out everything in The French Lieutenant's Woman, Pennies from Heaven, Ragtime, and Reds, it was clear that Warren Beatty wasn't going to win best picture; the next year, when Gandhi's loincloths trumped the costumes in La Traviata and Victor/Victoria, it was time to turn off the tube and go out for dinner.
This year, of course, the big action is between The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. (That Ray and Finding Neverland even got nominated was a surprise; either of them winning verges on the inconceivable. Sideways was also a surprise - a "little" film that got pushed into Oscar voters' minds when it won the lion's share of critics' awards.) If The Aviator wins the Costume Design award, it won't signify anything, since Million Dollar Baby wasn't nominated and The Aviator actually deserves to win it. (Whereas, if the Eastwood film was in the running for costumes, a win would have signaled a sweep.)
As of this second, Eastwood looks to be the big winner: Million Dollar Baby was more popular among critics, and Clint is, well, beloved. Enthusiasm for The Aviator has been more along the lines of "Well, it's not great, but it's okay ... and commercial ... but not too commercial ... and everybody agrees that Scorsese is one of the greatest living directors and are we never gonna give the guy anything?"
There is also a possibility that the films will split Best Picture and Best Director, as occasionally happens, with Million Dollar Baby grabbing the former and Scorsese grabbing the latter. (Even the reverse is conceivable, but less likely, since the issue here is honoring Scorsese, not the film itself.)
And then there's the dark horse issue of Sideways. I remain baffled by the critical reaction to this film. It struck me as a passable, even pretty good, little romantic comedy, but nothing particularly special. Paul Giamatti's Miles is in the mold of the neurotic-schmuck characters Woody Allen played several times in films that were generally funnier and more insightful than Sideways. Yes, the cast is first-rate, and Virginia Madsen deserves to win (among a fairly weak field of contenders).
But my reaction to Sideways is so out of the mainstream that it's obvious there's something going on here - some virtue or, at least, appealing quality - which has utterly eluded me. So I don't feel qualified to rule out the possibility that it will pull some sort of upset. In any case, it will probably win Best Adapted Screenplay, unless Million Dollar Baby pulls a really big sweep.
The only absolute sure shot of the evening - well, besides The Incredibles for Best Animated Film - is Jamie Foxx for Best Actor, even though Clint gave one of the best performances of his long career and Leonardo DiCaprio is regarded as having done a terrific job. But a loss for Foxx would be by far the biggest shock of the night - bigger than a sweep for Sideways.
Hilary Swank is the favorite for Best Actress, unless there is a sentimental vote for Annette Bening in Being Julia, a film that not many people saw. If Swank wins, she will be the only two-time winner whose career is effectively a zero, outside of those two performances. Weird.
Best Supporting Actor should be Morgan Freeman and probably will be Morgan Freeman. Everyone agrees the guy is great and that he's long overdue; and his only substantive competition would be Jamie Foxx (in Collateral), but Foxx will lose, on the assumption that he's going to win Best Actor anyway. If Thomas Haden Church wins, then Sideways is getting Best Picture.
For Best Original Screenplay, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, by Charlie Kaufman and pals, is a good bet, but John Logan could win for The Aviator, either as part of a sweep or as a consolation prize if The Aviator doesn't sweep.
The two music categories are about as weak as I've ever seen them, not a memorable moment among them, except for the parts of The Passion of the Christ score that were lifted from Ralph Vaughan Williams.
For Best Foreign Film, the biggest contenders are Alejandro Amenábar's The Sea Inside and Oliver Hirschbiegel's Downfall (reviewed elsewhere in this issue). Amenábar takes it, since it's hard to imagine the Academy awarding a film that seems to say, "Hey, Hitler wasn't all bad: At least he was nice to the secretaries and loved his dog."Published: 02/24/2005
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