Like a Real Race
Democrats feel like they have an outside shot at the mostly Republican 38th District with the depart
On the outskirts of Los Angeles County, in the 38th Assembly District, a seven-way primary could be quietly laying the foundation for a Democratic coup in a Republican stronghold.
On its face, this seems like a pipe dream: Voter registration in the 38th runs 44 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic and, save for lone Democratic Congressman Brad Sherman, a Republican sits in every one of its partisan seats. But, despite these odds, four Democratic candidates - Jim Alger, Lyn Shaw, Jane Lowenthal, and Sid Gold - are claiming a new momentum. They say the area has changed, with new demographics, no incumbent, and a far-right opponent out of step with the district's constituents.
"Much of the area has been traditionally conservative, but recently [homeowners] have been able to buy-in here when they couldn't afford the San Fernando Valley," says Shaw.
Activists who've been out registering new Democrats say they're finding that these new neighbors are bringing more liberal, urban views with them; they're also bringing an increased density that changes the landscape for everyone.
"Simi Valley used to be a bedroom community, now it's turning into more of a big city," says Brian Dennert, who writes a blog on local politics hosted by the Ventura County Star. "The solutions to its problems are now big government solutions."
It wasn't supposed to be this way. In 2001, the district was gerrymandered in such a way as to be a cozy enclave for the Republican Party. Nearly half of it is made up of the Santa Clarita Valley, with the rest taken up in portions of the Simi and San Fernando Valleys; at its northern end it bleeds out into Ventura County. It may sit perched atop an inner valley of solid blue, but this district is a poster child for the other California - where the district's termed-out Republican Assembly member, Keith Richman, won his last election with 61 percent of the vote and George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 11 points. Richman's last two Democratic challengers - only one challenged him in each election cycle - both mustered less than $1,000 for their bids to unseat him.
"When we had Richman in office, it was challenging just to get one person to run against him," says Bruce McFarland, president of the Santa Clarita-based Democratic Alliance for Action.
But Keith Richman now has to leave the Assembly and is campaigning for the office of State Treasurer. His heir apparent is a Santa Clarita Councilmember ´´ named Cameron Smyth, who already has nearly a quarter-million dollars in his campaign coffers, two terms as mayor under his belt, and the esteemed Richman's endorsement.
Technically, Smyth still has to defeat Mary Barrientos in the June primary to claim his title. Barrientos is a Riordan-style Republican whose resume lists stints as both a Commissioner of the L.A. Housing Authority and a high-ranking official with the United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce. But with the Republican Party formally lined up behind Smyth, "he'd have to kill someone on camera to lose this race," says Dennert.
It's a development that actually gives hope to Democrats.
"I am very pleased that he's the heir apparent," says Lowenthal. "It is true that [Cameron] is more conservative than Keith by a long, long, long, long shot, and many have said that it was a mistake for the Republicans to put him in."
After all, voters here opted for Dianne Feinstein over Republican candidate Tom Campbell in the 2000 U.S. senate race, and Barbara Boxer over the strongly conservative Bill Jones in 2004. Richman, meanwhile, has earned mountains of praise over his tenure for providing Sacramento with one of its most moderate Republican voices.
Many of Smyth's views do fall on the more conservative end of the spectrum, from his anti-gay-marriage position to his pro-life and pro-death penalty stances to his pledge to fight any tax increase, attempts to weaken Three Strikes, or moves to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.
But as for the idea that that makes him too conservative for his district, Smyth begs to differ. "Richman has endorsed me, he obviously doesn't think I'm too conservative," Smyth says. "The California Republican League also doesn't feel I'm too conservative for the district. Being an elected official already, I have a track record of being supported by members of both parties. I am a pro-life candidate, but that being said, there's not much that the state of California does on the issue of abortion."
For now, that is. Democrats are trying to sound the alarm that if the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade and send the question of a woman's right to choose back to the states, women don't want someone like Cameron Smyth representing them. Whether that argument resonates with voters is questionable; what Smyth and the Democrats agree on is that it'll be local, immediate issues that will determine the outcome of this race: transportation gridlock on the region's five freeways, education reform, and developing the local economy.
"These are quality of life issues that the Democrats are better on," insists Shaw.
And it's an area where Smyth could be vulnerable. Recently, there's been talk that the Simi Valley Landfill could triple in size, a controversial proposition, and Alger is already well-known throughout the area for fighting the Sunshine Canyon dump. Furthermore, during his tenure on City Council, Smyth has attracted some criticism for not doing enough to mitigate the rapid growth of Santa Clarita. This, combined with a statewide dissatisfaction with Gov. Schwarzenegger which has provoked speculation that some Republicans will sit out this election entirely, has the Democrats feeling the potential is there.
"I'm not saying it's an easy shot," says Shaw. "But we have a shot."
Political analysts, however, aren't quite as bullish on the Democrats' prospects.
"If the moon and stars are in the right alignment [a Democrat could win]," says Allan Hoffenblum, who co-edits the nonpartisan California Target Book. "But it's not likely. The Democrats in the race are not moderates, and between a conservative Republican and a liberal Democrat, [the 38th] will go for a conservative Republican."
That kind of conventional wisdom has got Democrats competing for the honor of being labeled most moderate. Sid Gold did not return e-mails for comment, but Lowenthal, a professional mediator, says her background has trained her to find pragmatic consensus among warring parties. Alger says he's got a balanced pro-business approach and calls Shaw a party insider too close to organized labor to hold the moderate views necessary in the 38th. Shaw, meanwhile, says the local issues that will dominate this race play into her area of expertise as a human services administrator for Tierra del Sol, a foundation serving adults with developmental disabilities.
"I'm offering the difference between a right-wing conservative and a Democrat who makes peoples lives better," Shaw says.
Ultimately, though, Democrats say this race is part of a long-term strategy, and as such, if the seat doesn't go to them this time around, that's actually fine, too.
"Ten years ago, Burbank, Pasadena, and Glendale were Republican areas," says Damian Carroll, president of the San Fernando Valley Young Democrats, whose group is pledging to throw some weight behind whichever candidate wins the primary. "They turned because strong candidates perhaps didn't win the first time around, but they put up respectable fights, and that translated into more money and more grassroots action down the line. Win or lose this round, it's very important to fight this like a real race."Published: 04/13/2006
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